Can Mexico Be Saved?

Flowers in Himalayan foothills in Nepal. Photo by JoAnn Sturman

Scott Sturman

fliesinyoureyes.com

An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.

Sir Winston Churchill

The drug wars are creating havoc in Mexico, making one wonder if it is destined to become a narco state. In situations like these it is prudent to study similar events in different countries to determine if the problem is solvable, and if so, what steps can be taken.

Twenty years ago Colombia experienced a murder rate of 80 per 100,000 of its citizens, eight times the scale of that in Mexico today, as the brutal Cali and Medellin drug cartels fought to control the world's cocaine trade. Chihuahua, Mexico's most violent region, has the highest homicide rate in the Western Hemisphere at 143/100,000. However, this is less than one third of that experienced in Medellin in the early 1990's.

Two events escalated the intensity of the drug wars in Mexico. Before 1984 almost all cocaine was smuggled into the United States via the Bahamas and Florida. This changed when U.S. authorities plugged the conduit and forced the Colombians to forge alliances with Mexican traffickers to smuggle cocaine into the United States. Soon 80-90% of Columbian cocaine entered the country via Mexico. In the process the Mexican cartels became more powerful as they acquired vast sums of cash. The problem compounded when the Colombians began to pay the Mexicans with cocaine which allowed them to develop extensive drug distribution networks independent of the Colombians.

The second impetus to the escalating violence and lawlessness occurred in 2000 when the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) which had controlled Mexican politics for 70 years lost power to Vicente Fox of the National Action Party (NAP). No longer did the cartels have comfortable relationships with embedded, corrupt politicians as many of the NAP officials were no longer willing to turn a blind eye to cartel operations. Criminal elements declared war on the Mexican establishment, as they brazenly confronted them with an array of modern weaponry.

In Robert Bonner's article “The New Cocaine Cowboys” in Foreign Affairs, he points out what was done in Colombia to disrupt the cartels and how this strategy applies to Mexico:

1. The cartels are sophisticated, vertically integrated, transnational organizations. They must be attacked at all locations throughout the world where they conduct operations.

2. The goal is indisputable. The cartels must be destroyed. Prevention of smuggling and ending consumption are secondary objectives.

3. The cartels must be attacked one at a time as was done in Colombia. This allows authorities to concentrate forces. Cartels do not come to one another's aid.

4. Cartel kingpins and their lieutenants must be captured or killed. These individuals are accomplished and ruthless businessmen, as well as criminals who control multi billion dollar companies. The health of the cartel depends on their expertise and leadership. Removing the kingpin cuts the head off the monster.

5. Mexican judicial and law enforcement institutions must be reformed to rid corruption and protect principled officials. Assistance from the United States shielded Colombian authorities from corruption and bodily harm. Civil servants received higher wages and required more stringent qualifications for employment. Federalizing the police force reduces the ability of the cartels to infiltrate local law enforcement agencies.

6. The ultimate defeat of the cartels rests with the police and not the military. Military intervention may be beneficial initially, but does not ensure a long term solution.

7. Extradition is crucial. Trial and imprisonment in the United States was the only threat Colombian drug lords feared. Several of them surrendered to Colombian authorities rather than be sent to the United States.

Lessons learned in Colombia two decades ago can defeat the Mexican drug cartels. The rule of law must prevail, but during the upheaval in Colombia, several cartel leaders were shot “while trying to escape.” This left a clear message to these savages that there is no place to run and no place to hide.